Funding of mineral fertilizer plants is a generalized plan that reflects the expected costs and income of the project in a certain time horizon.

It is a critical element of any large investment project that is required not only by sponsors, but also by potential lenders, contractors and clients.

Funding for mineral fertilizer plants and The construction of a modern facility associated infrastructure typically requires tens of millions of euros, most of which must be raised in the early stages of the project.

Financing capital-intensive projects on the right terms is becoming increasingly challenging in this industry, requiring sponsors to have a perfect business plan, a flexible financial model and guarantees.

CP Finance UK Finance, with extensive international experience, offers a full range of professional services for funding a mineral fertilizer plants worldwide, including the following:

• Long-term loans.
• Project finance services.
• Credit guarantees.
• Project management.
• Financial modeling.
• Support and consulting.

Contact our representative for details.

Basics of financial modeling for funding the mineral fertilizer industry

In general, a financial model is a system of interrelated indicators that can be used to assess the health of a company or its projects.

It is aimed at forecasting revenue, cash flow, profit and other important parameters. But the main advantage of financial modeling is the flexibility of the finished product, including the ability of the user to calculate in two clicks how changes in the market or within the company will affect its financial condition.

A high-quality financial model shows all stakeholders how a particular business project works and justifies the level of its expected profitability. This gives confidence to partners, which is especially important in the early stages of cooperation. The financial model is included in the structure of the business plan of the mineral fertilizer plant, being a financial expression of all other elements of a particular investment project.

The financial model helps owners to control the development of the company, and also allows lenders to make a more informed decision on issuing a loan. The financial model is studied by both lenders and investors.

For the latter, not only the idea is important, but also real results and growth.

Since the mineral fertilizer industry is closely linked to agriculture and other sectors of the economy, as well as highly globalized and dependent on numerous factors, the requirements for such a model are very strict. For example, any change in the cost of gas, electricity and logistics immediately affects the operation of mineral fertilizer plants.

The principles of financial modeling applicable to funding the mineral fertilizer plants are listed below:

• Availability of a certain set of accurate and reliable initial data on the external and internal environment of the investment project.
• Comprehensive assessment of the entire range of available financial resources, taking into account the terms of their attraction and use.
• High-quality assessment of the efficiency of the project under different conditions.
• Sensitivity analysis of the financial plan.

The essence of the financial model can be considered in three aspects, including the feasibility of the project (viability), its overall economic efficiency and sensitivity.

For an ideal funding of a mineral fertilizer plants, the deterioration of any of its parameters should not have a significant negative impact on key performance indicators.

The model should include several scenarios, such as a baseline, an optimistic scenario, and a pessimistic scenario. For each of them, detailed calculations are made in a certain time horizon. Scenario settings should include all relevant parameters, including exchange rates, tax changes, changes in duties on chemical products and fertilizers, personnel salaries, equipment repair and modernization costs, and other direct and indirect costs.

The more parameters a financial model takes into account, the more accurate its results will be in different scenarios.

Typical sections of the financial model

Given the complexity of the modern mineral fertilizer industry, as well as the versatility of contractual relations between participants in project finance schemes, it is better to entrust the development of a financial model for a large project to a professional team.

Regardless of the approach chosen, any financial model should include the following sections:

• Initial data.
• Capital investments.
• Sources of project financing.
• Project cash flows.
• Investment efficiency.
• Sensitivity analysis.

The foundation of any investment project is the correct initial data on which subsequent forecasts and models are based.

This section should contain parameters that directly affect the activity of the project. This includes external factors, internal factors, operating costs, additional sources of income, obligatory payments on loans, as well as forecasts for KPIs based on this data.

With regard to capital investments, this section should reflect the costs of purchasing (creating) long-term assets such as land, premises, infrastructure, production equipment and transport.

For each item, it is important to calculate depreciation costs that will be deducted from revenue.

Since funding a mineral fertilizer plants and construction of its facility is a very complex engineering project, capital investment consists of many components. The more complex the project (for example, ammonia production or mining facilities), the more capital investment will be required and the more complex the structure of the financial model will be.

The selection of project finance sources is the next important step in model development once the capital costs have been determined and the overall scope of the investment project is understood. Since the cost of building a fertilizer plant from scratch is typically in the tens of millions of euros, project sponsors may need a long-term investment loan and other leverage mechanisms.

This includes the issuance of additional shares and bonds, as well as leasing instruments.

When describing the cash flows of a project, the finance team should systematize all the information from the previous sections and calculate the difference between income (positive cash flow) and expenses (negative cash flow) for the period for which specific model is being developed.

For investors and lenders, this parameter may be more important than profit, as it demonstrates the real financial health of an investment project.

But negative cash flow does not always mean that the company is incurring losses. This situation is normal during the period of business restructuring. In any case, it is important to add a rational explanation for potential providers of capital.

There are three key financial parameters that are important to consider:

1. NPV (Net Present Value) is the sum of cash inflows and outflows at the date the investor would like to make a profit. For example, a year after he invested money. By negative NPV, the investor will understand that the costs of the project exceeded the investments.

2. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) is the rate at which NPV is zero. It demonstrates the average profitability of a mineral fertilizer plant project over a certain period. In other words, IRR reflects the profit that an investor participating in the project will receive.

3. PP (payback period) is the minimum period for which the costs of the project will pay off. To correctly calculate this indicator, the team needs to predict how much profit the business will bring each year. The longer the investment pays off, the less attractive it is considered.

Finally, the last important part of the financial model is sensitivity analysis.

It shows how the profit of the enterprise will change under the influence of external factors, which are listed in the first section.

In particular, sensitivity analysis helps to understand how the cost of production will increase with an increase in the foreign exchange rate if the plant buys ammonia from abroad.

External factors in a globalized market cannot be underestimated, especially when it comes to the mineral fertilizer industry. The most recent example is the skyrocketing rise in natural gas prices in Europe, which led to a sharp increase in electricity prices in 2021 and reduced the activity of some plants producing ammonia, one of the main components of nitrogen fertilizers.

Main metrics in the financial model of a mineral fertilizer plants

The attractiveness and viability of any business project is measured by a standard set of parameters that must be reflected in financial model.

From the perspective of investors and lenders, key project performance indicators include the following:

• Net present value (NPV).
• Profitability index (PI).
• Internal rate of return (IRR).
• Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR).
• Payback period of initial costs (PP).
• PP calculated using discounted cash flows (DPP).
• Weighted average rate of return (ARR).

Importance of financial modeling services

Most often, the financial model is the basis for the financial forecast and evaluation of the profitability of investment projects in the mineral fertilizer industry and related areas.

Thanks to the financial forecast, stakeholders will receive concrete figures about the future financial results of a particular project.

The financial model and funding for mineral fertilizer plants is an effective motivational tool for constantly improving business engineering.

Liquidity risk is of considerable importance, which is minimized by calculating the projected net cash flows and funding requirements to obtain the most profitable source of project financing. In an increasing number of companies, forecasts are used to determine KPIs.

On the other hand, the assessment of the profitability of an investment is valuable information regarding the decision to participate in this investment project and the study of the financial benefits associated with its implementation.

The financial model and funding of a mineral fertilizer plant is used when attracting investors, applying for a loan, selling a business, or distributing shares between partners.

CP Finance UK Finance is ready to offer the development of a financial model, as well as a company’s cash flow forecast for banks and investors.

Our company can also conduct a break-even analysis of the project and a stress test that will show how the financial health of the company will change if key indicators deviate from the plan.

As part of the preparation of the financial model, our company can also carry out calculations of the economic efficiency of your investment project, which include NPV (net present value of the project) and IRR (internal rate of return), as well as building a DCF model of future cash flows from the funding of mineral fertilizer plants.

We don’t take a one-size-fits-all approach, but our team develops customized solutions for each client. If the financial model is needed only for internal purposes, we can prepare only a model and a short memorandum.

If the document is being prepared for investors or lenders, we can present your project by supplementing the financial model with the market analysis in which the company operates and a high-quality presentation of the project, highlighting its strengths and advantages.

We operate in many countries such as Spain, France, USA, Germany, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Brazil, Argentina, Egypt and others.

For advice and possible financing, please contact CP Finance UK Finance at any time.

CP Finance UK FINANCE LIMITED
Website:https://c-pfinanceuk.com/
E-mail:finance@cpuk-financeltd.com
Alt-Email:admin@cpukfinanceltd.com

Large power plant construction cost are the backbone of the energy system, providing uninterrupted power supply to residential buildings, industrial consumers and infrastructure.

Despite its high social importance, large power plant construction should be profitable and attractive to investors.

This takes into account both the initial investment costs associated with the construction and the operating costs that the owners of the facility will incur over the years.

Any power plant, be it a wind farm, a hydroelectric power plant or a solar power plant, is a multifaceted and technically complex project that requires the use of customized engineering and financial solutions to ensure its viability. The type of power plant, the choice of technologies and equipment, the scale of the project, location and other factors have a significant impact on investment costs.

The cost of building a large power plant construction is a critical factor in this equation that influences the final decision of the stakeholders.

How much does it cost to construct large power plant of different types?

The type of power plant is the main factor influencing the cost of an investment project and determining its economic viability.

However, investors must evaluate not only the cost of construction, but also other costs that will accompany a particular project throughout its life cycle. Construction costs for a wind farm and a solar power plant are typically significantly higher compared to combined cycle thermal power plants, while operating costs due to fuel costs in the latter case are many times higher than in most renewable sources.

Technical constraints, projected demand, environmental requirements, fuel consumption, maintenance, equipment modernization and other factors should be considered when planning investments in energy facilities in the long term.

Most important, however, are capital expenditures, which include the cost of all phases, from the draft to connecting the power plant to the grid.

Access to energy infrastructure, labor costs, legal frameworks, environmental restrictions, bank policies and many other factors should be taken into account in order to predict the final figure as accurately as possible. But even this does not give confidence that the project participants will be able to avoid budget overruns and construction schedule delays.

For example, the recent pandemic and geopolitical crisis in Europe came as an unpleasant surprise for numerous companies around the world, increasing the cost of some projects and calling into question the viability of others. Adding volatile prices for materials and equipment to supply chain problems, we can get a rough idea of the risks that await any company in the early stages of the energy project.

Our customized financial models, project finance services and flexible refinancing solutions can reduce the cost of capital for your project and get you through a difficult period.

Comparison of available cost options

The cost of construction is not the only criterion taken into account when choosing from several energy alternatives.

To justify the economic efficiency of different options for power plants, the method of comparative efficiency is usually used.

For the economic comparison of options, the so-called integral economic effect is used, the maximum value of which determines the most effective of them. Auxiliary criteria for comparing alternative projects are the internal rate of return, the return on investment, the payback period, financial incentives, utilization ration and others.

The integral economic effect is defined as the difference between the result of activity and costs for a certain period. The result is the proceeds from the sold electric and thermal energy, while the annual costs include the costs of building and operating a power plant of a certain type.

All compared projects are brought to an equal energy effect. In this case, this is an equal annual supply of electricity throughout the entire period of operation or the analyzed period.

As a criterion for the effectiveness, experts suggest using the total costs or the average cost of electricity supplied.

For most power plants, when determining the costs for the entire period (including the construction stage and the estimated operating life), the following is taken into account:

• capital investments;
• fuel costs (if applicable);
• modernization, major and current repair costs;
• staff salaries and services of third-party specialists;
• equipment maintenance costs;
• emission charge (if applicable);
• the cost of buying or renting land;
• land tax and other taxes and fees;
• annual payments on loans and so on.

When planning a large power plant construction, participants must clearly understand the business needs, on the basis of which technical requirements are developed and the most suitable financial models are selected.

For example, the most expensive solar power plants cost up to 1.5-2 billion euros, and the final cost of such a facility may differ significantly from the expectations of investors at the initial stage. Given the scale of construction, mistakes can cost hundreds of millions.

Construction costs for solar power plants

Modern solar power generation is based on two technologies.

Firstly, it is simple and affordable photovoltaics, which directly converts solar energy into direct current.

Secondly, it is an indirect method of concentrating solar energy using reflectors to heat a thermal transfer medium such as molten salt or a thermal oil, which then drives a turbine and generates electricity even in the absence of solar radiation.

How much does a solar PV power plant cost?

The cost of building photovoltaic systems depends on many factors, with a clear trend towards decreasing cost per megawatt of installed capacity as the scale of an investment project increases.

How much does a 1 MW solar farm cost?

This question usually starts the discussion of photovoltaic investments.

The total cost of building a photovoltaic power plant ranges from 600 thousand to 1.2 million euros per MW, depending on the project and the components used.

The cost of building solar power plants is decreasing every year due to scientific progress, the political will of leading countries and economies of scale affecting the production of equipment. The EU and most of the developed countries of the world require an increase in the production of energy from renewable sources every year, so government policies will favor investors in building more photovoltaic systems.

The emergence of more efficient photovoltaic cells and sustainable reduction in prices for photovoltaic equipment are leading to an ever faster return on investment.

In 2010, the average cost of building solar PV power plants in the world was about 4.8 million euros per megawatt of installed capacity. In 2022, this figure dropped to 800 thousand euros per MW, showing an impressive sixfold reduction in construction costs over the past 12 years.

When deciding to build a photovoltaic farm, in addition to buying inverters and panels, you need to consider land costs, construction, installation, connection, fencing and monitoring costs.

In terms of performance, an average 100 MW solar power plant located at the latitude of Northern Germany, for example, produces about 100 GWh of green energy annually.

According to studies, 1 MW of PV panels, including auxiliary equipment, require approximately 2.6-2.9 hectares of land.

Therefore, a solar power plant with an installed capacity of 50 MW will require at least 130 hectares of land, not counting administrative buildings and infrastructure. A long-term lease of land for building a solar power plant can cost from a few hundred euros to 1,000 euros or more per hectare of land annually, depending on the type of area.

It is important to take into account the costs that arise at all stages of an investment project, including the cost of operation and maintenance, the cost of financing, as well as the potential reduction in generation as a result of the natural decrease in the efficiency of photovoltaic modules.

Thanks to the rapid development of photovoltaic technology, the market offers durable PV panels, the productivity of which decreases linearly by about 15% after 25 years of operation.

The payback period of a modern photovoltaic farm reaches 8-10 years with a life cycle of about 25 years.

The cost of concentrated solar power plants (CSP)

An important advantage of such systems is the storage of energy in the form of a heated molten salt for long hours, which makes it possible to accumulate excess energy falling on reflective surfaces during daylight hours. This is very important for regions such as the Middle East and North Africa, where the intensity of solar radiation during the daytime is very high.

The largest operating power plants of this type, such as the Noor Complex Solar Power Plant (Morocco), are located in regions with the highest intensity of solar radiation, due to rational technical reasons.

Unlike photovoltaic systems, concentrated solar power plants have not shown a significant reduction in capital costs over the past decade. These are very expensive and technically complex projects based on the so-called Thermal Energy Storage technologies (TES), which are still quite capital intensive. In 2010-2011, industrial-scale CSP systems cost an average of 10 million euros per 1 MW of installed capacity, while in 2019-2020 this figure varied from 5 to 8 million euros.

Photovoltaic systems are much easier to build and install.

But like other solar power plants, CSP projects require huge land plots for the installation of reflectors, so the cost of buying / renting land plots is also high in this case.

It should also be remembered that the operation and maintenance of concentrated solar power plants is very expensive due to the use of chemical heat transfer fluids and special operating modes.

Moreover, some chemicals create certain environmental risks, which affects the cost of the project and its investment attractiveness.

Looking to the future, new research aims to transform excess carbon dioxide from atmospheric air with the help of light. In this context, CSP projects may become industrial CO2 harvesting plants over the next decades. This will start the global process of atmospheric decarbonization and open up a new source of income for the owners of next-generation concentrated solar power plants.

Construction costs for wind farms

There are many advantages of wind power, including environmental and economic ones.

The total kinetic energy of the wind in the world is estimated to be about 80 times higher than the total energy consumption of the world economy. Although only a certain percentage of this total can be used for energy needs, the future development of this technology has enormous potential.

Regardless of the type of project, building a large industrial scale wind farm is a significant investment that can require hundreds of millions of euros in the early stages. However, given the rising cost of electricity and significant advances in wind power generation, successful wind farms demonstrate payback periods of less than 10 years under favorable conditions.

For small wind power plants intended for autonomous generation, the payback period can be up to 12-15 years, depending on the type of equipment, wind speed, mode of use and other factors.

The average time required from the final investment decision to the construction of a wind farm is approximately 1 year for an onshore project and approximately 3 years for an offshore wind farm. This is largely determined by local legislation and regulatory procedures, which vary widely not only in different countries of the world, but even within the EU.

Onshore wind farms: When we talk about onshore wind projects, we mean a wide range of technological solutions of various sizes, designed both for autonomous generation and for power supply of entire cities and regions.

Economies of scale largely determine the cost of building onshore wind farm and large power plant construction

Experts estimate that the installation of a small wind turbine will cost approximately 4,500-5,000 euros per kilowatt of installed capacity. In contrast, large wind power plants cost on average €1.2 million per megawatt installed. The cost of building large wind farms is rapidly declining, primarily due to the introduction of ever more powerful wind turbines.

According to European experts, the cost of building wind farms has decreased by an average of 20-25% between 2015 and 2022, depending on the type of project and the technology used.

Spain has the lowest installed capacity cost per megawatt, while Germany and France show the highest cost of wind projects in Europe (the difference can be up to 35% for similar projects).

Despite technological advances, onshore wind energy experts expect an end to the further decline in the cost of wind farms in the near future.

This is due to factors such as inflation, rising global building material prices and natural size limits for onshore wind turbines.

Offshore wind farms: As far as offshore wind projects are concerned, they have always been more attractive to maritime countries due to the wide availability of suitable construction sites.

The sea shelf, which is not used economically, opens up unlimited opportunities for generating green energy. Another very important advantage of offshore wind turbines is the absence of strict requirements for maximum height, rotor diameter and noise level, which are serious obstacles for the development of onshore projects in densely populated areas, for example, in Europe.

The disadvantage of this technology is the relatively high cost of building offshore wind farms, which is 3-4 times higher than the cost of similar onshore projects. Huge offshore installations are difficult to transport, assemble and install both on the seabed and on floating platforms.

The initial costs associated with the development of such projects can be very high.

At the same time, rapid progress in this area allows energy companies to achieve competitive LCOE.

Over the past 12 years, the cost of an installed megawatt of offshore wind power globally has almost halved, from about 6 million euros to 3-3.5 million euros.

This progress is due to significant improvements in offshore wind power generation technology and the introduction of larger turbines reaching 16-18 MW. In particular, the latest offshore turbine Haizhuang H260-18MW from CSSC (China) was the largest in the world at the beginning of 2023.

One such unit with a 260-meter rotor diameter capable of generating about 74 GWh of electricity every year. The evolution of offshore wind turbines from standard 3-5 MW to 18 MW industrial monsters clearly demonstrates the impact of economies of scale on the cost of building and operating offshore wind farms.

Construction costs for thermal power plants

In 2023, the cost of building traditional thermal power plants will start from 600-800 thousand euros per 1 MW of installed capacity.

In most cases, energy companies have to deal with capital expenditures ranging from 1.2-1.5 million euros per megawatt and even more, depending on the chosen technology, facility location and other factors.

When choosing investment alternatives, the following types of thermal power should be considered:

• steam power plants;
• combined cycle power plants;
• gas turbine power plants.

Combined cycle thermal power plants have a high level of efficiency compared to other types of thermal power plants.

This means better performance in the long term. These power plants are usually built to meet baseline loads. However, the construction of power plants with two cycles of thermal energy requires additional costs, so CCPPs are considered to be much more expensive than traditional steam power plants. Another disadvantage is the long construction period.

The average cost of single shaft combined cycle thermal power plants without advanced emission minimization technologies is about 1-1.3 million euros per megawatt.

When it comes to installing carbon capture and sequestration equipment, the cost of the project could skyrocket to 2.5-2.8 million euros per megawatt of installed capacity.

Following the path of increasing efficiency, some companies are now focusing on building advanced ultra-supercritical coal-fired power plants (AUSC). These power plants with special technologies for burning finely dispersed coal produce steam at a temperature of 700-750 C, reaching net efficiency rates of 49-50%.

These impressive figures require the use of expensive equipment and heat-resistant materials, which increases the cost of building typical AUSC power plants to 3 million euros per megawatt of installed capacity.

The introduction of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies increases the cost of such power plants to 5-6 million euros per megawatt.

Equipment, building materials (eg steel and aluminium) and labor are important factors influencing the final cost of thermal power plants.

Most projects of this type take at least 3-5 years, so fluctuations in variable costs are important to consider when planning investment projects and large power plant construction.

Construction costs for hydropower plants

In 2022, the average cost of building hydroelectric power plants and large power plant construction in the world was about 1.9 million euros per megawatt of installed capacity.

There are no signs of price declines in this segment as the hydropower sector relies heavily on available land and civil works costs rather than on changing technologies. Today it is one of the most expensive power generation technologies in the world.

Moreover, the rising cost of labor and building materials are making this type of power plant increasingly expensive for investors.

For example, between 2010 and 2022, the average cost of hydroelectric power plants increased by 30-50%, depending on the region and project type.

Despite high construction costs, hydropower plants remain the backbone of low-carbon power generation. These facilities do not require significant operating and maintenance costs, which makes the generated electricity affordable and competitive.

In addition to large powerful hydroelectric power plants, which have been actively built in East Asia in recent years, business is interested in mini-hydroepower plants.

These are small facilities with an installed capacity of no more than 10-30 MW (classification depends on the country), capable of providing cheap electricity to plants, factories and remote settlements that do not have access to the power grid.

The cost of such power plants per megawatt will be higher compared to large projects, but the potential for local power generation is huge, especially in countries with numerous small rivers (eg UK, Canada, Brazil, Poland, Romania and others).

Construction costs for geothermal power plants

Geothermal facilities are characterized by a wide variety of technologies used, which explains the differences in project costs of large power plant construction.

Much depends on the type of project, location, depth and temperature of the geothermal source and a number of other factors. On average, the cost of geothermal power plants in 2023 varies from 3 to 5 million euros per megawatt.

Dry steam, binary cycle or other engineering decisions largely determine the financial aspects of a particular project. Obviously, the direct use of hot water available close to the ground requires a much lower investment compared to drilling deep wells. Moreover, exploration work in the early stages of a project may require millions of euros of investment, and these funds must be raised by the owners in an environment of economic uncertainty and risk.

Unlike large power plant construction as solar or wind energy, geothermal projects have not fallen in price over the past decade.

Investment costs of large power plant construction are affected by the high cost of drilling equipment, as well as the rising cost of labor and building materials, which account for a large share of the total cost of such projects.

According to Fitch Solution, construction costs for geothermal power plants have increased from 2.6 million euros per megawatt in 2010 to 4.4 million euros per megawatt in 2020. Due to technical constraints and high capital costs, the levelized cost of electricity generated from geothermal sources, also remains relatively high, which hinders the further development of this sector.

Not surprisingly, geothermal power plants remain the second choice for a limited number of countries with favorable geological conditions.

These include the United States, the Philippines, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Japan, Italy, New Zealand and a number of other countries that are developing geothermal power generation despite the difficulties.

If you are interested in financing a major energy project, please contact the CP Finance UK FINANCE LIMITED for details.

We offer long-term loans starting from 50 million euros, and we also develop customized project finance solutions for the construction of large power plants, electrical substations and other energy infrastructure.

CP Finance UK FINANCE LIMITED
Website:https://c-pfinanceuk.com/
E-mail:finance@cpuk-financeltd.com
Alt-Email:admin@cpukfinanceltd.com